{"id":2912,"date":"2025-02-17T18:18:47","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T19:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/?p=2912"},"modified":"2025-02-17T20:33:55","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T20:33:55","slug":"trumps-reality-check-the-ukraine-conflict-wont-be-settled-like-a-business-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/trumps-reality-check-the-ukraine-conflict-wont-be-settled-like-a-business-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Reality Check: The Ukraine conflict won\u2019t be settled like a business deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

How will the situation develop if the US president\u2019s efforts to end the war fail?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Deal\u2019 \u2013 it\u2019s the key word in Donald Trump\u2019s vocabulary and he\u2019s built his career on striking them, but as he embarks on his second presidential term, he is about to face a challenge that will put his famed negotiation skills to the test. The Ukraine conflict, unlike trade deals or business arrangements, is deeply entrenched in geopolitical, military, and ideological complexities.<\/p>\n

While Trump may initially push for a swift resolution \u2014 perhaps attempting to broker a ceasefire similar to his approach in the Middle East \u2014 he will soon realize that Ukraine is a far bigger challenge. The contradictions surrounding the conflict are not just regional but global, and a quick fix is unlikely. If Trump\u2019s efforts fail, how will the situation evolve?\u00a0<\/p>\n

US-Western Europe: Conflict or Quiet Sabotage?<\/h2>\n

Trump\u2019s worldview is centered around the idea that the US is losing its global dominance. Since he cannot prevent this decline, his strategy appears to be one of disruption \u2014 seizing the initiative and reshaping alliances. He has long considered NATO an outdated burden, and his demand for members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP is, for many European countries, entirely unrealistic. Currently, only four NATO members \u2014 Poland, the US, Greece, and the UK \u2014 spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense.<\/p>\n

Should Trump manage to overcome internal opposition and reshape US foreign policy, NATO may become his next target. The transatlantic alliance underpins many global institutions, and dismantling NATO \u2014 or significantly weakening it \u2014 would be a logical step in dismantling globalization itself. Supporting opposition parties in Europe, particularly nationalist and right-wing movements that align with his worldview, is one way he could advance this agenda.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"US
Fyodor Lukyanov: Vance only said what Americans really think<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In response, Western European elites have two options: openly confront Trump, which could lead to a transatlantic crisis, or verbally agree to his demands while quietly sabotaging them. The latter scenario is more likely. While they may nod along with Trump\u2019s calls for increased defense spending and a tougher stance on China, in practice, European governments are unlikely to follow through. Under Trump\u2019s leadership, NATO could lose both its political influence and its aura of invincibility.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s Ukraine Plan: Reality Check Incoming<\/h2>\n

Trump\u2019s team is eager to pressure Ukraine\u2019s Vladimir Zelensky into accepting a ceasefire. However, his vision for peace is simplistic and detached from reality. The war in Ukraine is not just a local conflict \u2014 it is a battleground for larger global struggles.<\/p>\n

The first step for Trump will be to push Zelensky toward a truce, though it remains unclear whether the Ukrainian leader would agree. More likely, Trump will pressure Kiev into lowering the military conscription age to ensure a continued supply of soldiers \u2014 just as was done last year in exchange for Western military aid.<\/p>\n

Zelensky, however, has his own concerns. He is desperately seeking security guarantees from the West, particularly from Trump. Without such assurances, he knows that if a ceasefire is reached, he will be left alone to face Russia. So far, there is no indication that Trump is willing to provide these guarantees. If he distances the US from Ukraine, Zelensky will be in an extremely vulnerable position.<\/p>\n

Ukraine: Western Europe\u2019s Unwanted Burden\u00a0<\/h2>\n

If Trump gives up on Ukraine, Western Europe may be forced to take responsibility for the war effort. However, the European Union lacks both the military stockpiles and the industrial capacity to sustain the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Financially, the EU could seize frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, but it is unclear how long that strategy could last.<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"FILE
Enslaved: Here\u2019s how the US made Western Europe its puppet<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Trump\u2019s ideal scenario is simple: Western Europe buys weapons from the US and sends them to Ukraine. Whether this plan will work remains to be seen. The longer the conflict drags on, the more toxic the issue becomes within European politics, with public opposition growing. If Trump and EU bureaucrats clash, Ukraine may find itself abandoned.<\/p>\n

Russia and the rest of Europe: No Grounds for Negotiation\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Unlike with the US, Russia sees no potential for negotiation with the current Western European leadership. The EU has shown no willingness to engage in meaningful diplomacy, preferring to churn out endless sanctions. Moscow\u2019s only real option is to build relationships with non-establishment political forces in Europe \u2014 leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n or Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who prioritize national interests over Brussels\u2019 agenda. If the EU continues its current trajectory, more such leaders will emerge.<\/p>\n

Russia and the US: The Only Negotiation That Matters<\/h2>\n

The most important diplomatic developments will take place between Moscow and Washington. Trump\u2019s immediate goal will be to resolve the Ukraine conflict quickly, casting himself as the president who ended an unwinnable war. He can still blame Biden for the US failure in Ukraine, but the longer the conflict continues, the more responsibility he will bear.<\/p>\n

For Russia, the time for serious negotiations has not yet arrived. Putin\u2019s primary goal is a decisive military victory that dismantles Ukraine\u2019s ability to resist. With Ukraine preparing for a last-ditch spring-summer offensive, the fighting will continue for at least a few more months. During that time, the war will become Trump\u2019s problem, not Biden\u2019s.<\/p>\n

At that point, Washington will face a crucial decision: escalate further, potentially triggering a direct confrontation with Russia, or accept defeat. Trump, who is more focused on a potential conflict with China, seems unwilling to risk war with Moscow.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n Read more<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n \"US
Trump wants a deal with Russia \u2013 but can he deliver?<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n

If this writer were preparing for negotiations with Trump, the message would be clear:<\/p>\n

\u201cDonald, your hand is weak. Ukraine will lose, and you know it. In six months, the failure will be on your shoulders, and you\u2019ll have to decide whether to start a nuclear war \u2014 something you don\u2019t want. You should cut your losses while you still can. No, we won\u2019t trade Ukraine for China or anything else. We\u2019re prepared to wait until you have nothing left to bargain with.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Ukraine, NATO, and the Bigger Picture<\/h2>\n

The only real path to peace in Ukraine is its capitulation and the dismantling of anti-Russian nationalism. This requires a decisive military defeat, something the Russian army has been working toward for three years. If Ukraine\u2019s military collapses, a coup in Kiev could become a real possibility.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the NATO alliance faces a reckoning. Eastern European nations have long assumed that even informal NATO ties guarantee absolute protection from Russia. Ukraine\u2019s fate will shatter this illusion. A Ukrainian defeat would mark the end of NATO expansion and shake Western influence in the region. Potential NATO candidates will see Ukraine as a cautionary tale.<\/p>\n

Looking Ahead<\/h2>\n

If Trump\u2019s efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict fail, he will have three options: escalate, withdraw, or shift the burden to Europe. None of these choices will resolve the underlying issues, but they will shape the future of NATO, the EU, and the broader international order. Meanwhile, Russia will remain patient, waiting for the moment when the West is forced to acknowledge the new geopolitical reality.<\/p>\n

As for what happens next \u2014 whether the conflict expands, shifts to new regions like the Baltics, or fades into a prolonged stalemate \u2014 only time will tell. One thing is certain: Trump\u2019s path to a \u2018deal\u2019 on Ukraine will be far more complicated than he initially thought.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How will the situation develop if the US president\u2019s efforts to end the war fail? \u2018Deal\u2019 \u2013 it\u2019s the key word in Donald Trump\u2019s vocabulary and he\u2019s built his career on striking them, but as he embarks on his second presidential term, he is about to face a challenge that will put his famed negotiation…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2914,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2912"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2915,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2912\/revisions\/2915"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.developeternal.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}